Fabian Demicoli

European economic forecast – Spring 2012: Slow recovery in sight

According to the spring forecast released on 11 May, real GDP is projected to stagnate this year in the EU and to contract slightly in the euro area. However, strong policy actions and major advancements in the EU institutional framework have brought about an easing of financial market tensions in the beginning of 2012 and a tentative stabilisation of confidence, expected to strengthen over the forecast horizon.

Together with an expected acceleration in global growth, a gradual recovery is forecast to start in the second half of the year and gather speed in 2013. The unemployment rate, which lags changes in economic activity, is expected to remain at 10.3% in the EU and at 11% in the euro area in 2012 and 2013.

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