Fabian Demicoli

Commission autumn forecast 2012 – 2014 Sailing through rough waters


According to the Commission's autumn economic forecast, the
short-term outlook for the EU economy remains fragile, but a gradual return to
GDP growth is projected for 2013, with further strengthening in 2014. The
figures released on 7 November show GDP contracting on an annual basis by 0.3%
in the EU and 0.4% in the euro area in 2012. GDP growth for 2013 is projected
at 0.4% in the EU and 0.1% in the euro area. Unemployment in the EU is expected
to remain very high.

The process of reducing the imbalances that built up
during the pre-crisis years continues to weigh on domestic demand in some
countries. At the same time, some Member States are gradually regaining
competitiveness, so export growth is projected to increase as global trade
accelerates. Moreover, the structural reforms that countries have undertaken
should begin to bear fruit over the forecast period, while enhancements to the
architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) continue to strengt hen
confidence. The above factors should pave the way for a stronger and more
broad-based expansion in 2014. GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 1.6% in the
EU and 1.4% in the euro area.

The full forecast and the country specific forecast is
available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2012_autumn_forecast_en.htm

 

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